Journal of Housing Economics and Generational Expenditure Science
Marchand, P., Okonkwo, R., Walsh, T.
Department of Housing Economics and Generational Finance, University of Ashford
Applied Generational Inequality Research Unit, Meridian Institute
Received: 16 April 2025 · Accepted: 16 April 2025
This study examines the empirical relationship between millennial discretionary food expenditure — specifically avocado-based brunch items — and structural housing unaffordability. Using the Causal Attribution Accuracy Scale (CAAS), we assessed 318 participants across income deciles alongside comparative housing cost data. Results indicate that complete elimination of avocado toast expenditure would produce annual savings insufficient to close the median housing deposit gap by a factor of approximately 29. The causal attribution of housing unaffordability to discretionary food choices is not a finding of this study. It was not a finding of any prior study. The finding of this study is that people needed to say this out loud in a peer-reviewed format.
The proposition that millennial housing unaffordability is meaningfully attributable to discretionary consumer spending on items including avocado toast was introduced to public discourse in 2017 via a widely circulated media interview (Richards, 2017) and has since recurred in political commentary with notable regularity. This proposition has not, to the authors' knowledge, been subjected to formal quantitative testing in the economics literature. The present study addresses this gap by calculating the annual savings achievable through complete avocado toast elimination and comparing this figure to the deposit requirements for median-priced housing in the same geographic markets, treating the proposition not as political commentary but as an empirical claim that can be evaluated with publicly available data and basic arithmetic.
Participants.
Three hundred and eighteen adults aged 25–40 (M age = 31.2, SD = 4.1) were recruited across three income deciles. CAAS assessments were paired with financial data. Exclusion criteria included participants with housing deposits already saved (n = 29, studied separately as a group whose existence does not refute the primary finding) and participants who had never eaten avocado toast (n = 11, removed as outside the study population). IRB protocol HE-2024-0231 was approved.
Instruments.
The Causal Attribution Accuracy Scale (CAAS; 18 items, α = .87) measured perceived causal relationships between personal expenditure and housing access, financial literacy regarding deposit requirements, and willingness to consider structural versus behavioral explanations for economic outcomes. Housing cost and deposit data were extracted from national property registries. Avocado toast expenditure was measured via food diary and receipts.
Procedure.
CAAS was administered alongside financial audits across six weeks.
Annual Avocado Toast Savings.
Mean annual avocado toast expenditure was £487 (SD = £142). Complete elimination would produce mean annual savings of £487 (SD = £142). This finding required no statistical testing.
Deposit Gap.
Median housing deposit requirement in sampled markets was £42,800 (SD = £11,200). The ratio of deposit requirement to maximum avocado toast savings was 87.9:1. The years required to close the deposit gap through avocado toast elimination alone was 87.9 (SD = 21.4).
CAAS Attribution Scores.
Participants who endorsed behavioral causal explanations for housing unaffordability showed CAAS financial literacy scores significantly below those endorsing structural explanations, F(1, 316) = 31.4, p < .001, η² = 0.14.
The 87.9-year payback period is the study's primary finding and its most portable data point. At current avocado toast prices and deposit requirements, a millennial who began foregoing the item at age 25 would be eligible for a mortgage at age 112.9, assuming stable house prices — an assumption that the same market conditions that produced the deposit gap render implausible.
The CAAS financial literacy finding suggests that endorsement of discretionary-expenditure explanations for housing unaffordability is inversely associated with financial literacy. This is a finding about causal reasoning under economic stress, not a character assessment of those who hold the view.
The study's broader contribution is its formal entry into the record of peer-reviewed literature of a finding that could have been reached by division: the numbers do not support the causal claim. This does not mean discretionary spending is irrelevant to personal finance. It means avocado toast is not a mortgage.
Avocado toast expenditure is, arithmetically, not a material cause of millennial housing unaffordability. The deposit-to-toast ratio is 87.9:1. Housing unaffordability in the sampled markets is attributable to wage-to-price ratio deterioration, planning constraints, and investment-driven demand — variables that do not improve upon the elimination of brunch items. The authors recommend directing policy attention toward the 87.9:1 problem and leaving breakfast alone.
Correspondence: marchand@of-ashford.ac